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Aliyev snubs the Turkic summit in Ankara as Erdoğan reaffirms support for peace with Armenia

Published
Place
Ankara, Turkey
Event date
Past event —
Illustration: a round summit table with blank name cards, one empty chair under a spotlight and an olive branch.
Illustration — not a photograph.

Summary

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev did not attend the 13th summit of the Organization of Turkic States, held in Ankara on 30 October: it is the first time in almost fifteen years that he has missed an official summit of the organisation. Baku cited a busy schedule and was represented by Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov. The absence comes amid tensions between Baku and Ankara, notably after Turkish officials criticised the ban on headscarves in Azerbaijani schools. At the summit, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said he supports “our Azerbaijani brothers in their contacts with Armenia” and pledged to contribute “to lasting peace” in the South Caucasus. He also said he hoped renewed tensions around Iran would be resolved through diplomacy.

Analysis

The chill between the two allies is unusual: Oktay Saral, a chief adviser to Erdoğan who had criticised the restrictions, left his post on 26 October. Ankara and Baku are also backing different candidates for UN Secretary-General, and pro-government Azerbaijani media accuse “circles” in Turkey of waging an anti-Azerbaijani campaign. For Yerevan, Erdoğan’s speech contains no new announcement on normalising Armenian-Turkish relations.

Possible consequences

If the rift lasts, it could complicate coordination between Baku and Ankara on regional issues that affect Armenia, including transport routes. At this stage it does not call into question the strategic alliance between the two countries, which continue to show a common line on peace.

What remains uncertain

The real reasons for Ilham Aliyev’s absence have not been officially confirmed. Analyses published by pro-government Azerbaijani media do not amount to an official position. The effect of this tension on the peace process cannot be measured at this stage.